The rollout of clean energy means China’s emissions may have peaked

A massive rollout of wind and solar power across China could mean the country’s emissions peak in 2023, marking a historic turning point in the fight against climate change.

China’s carbon emissions hit a record high in 2023 as the economy recovered from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. But since then, vast amounts of wind and solar energy have been added to the country’s electricity grid, while emissions from the construction sector have fallen.

A new analysis shows that China’s CO2 emissions remained flat from July to September 2024, after falling 1 percent in the second quarter of the year. It means that overall emissions in 2024 could remain the same as 2023 levels, or even decline slightly.

This would be hugely important for global climate efforts, says Lauri Myllyvirta of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think tank in Finland. “The growth of Chinese emissions has been the dominant factor driving global emissions over the past eight years, since the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement,” he said.

In its climate change plan submitted to the United Nations, China has pledged to peak its greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. But experts warn that this plan is not nearly ambitious enough given the outsized impact China has on the global economy. climate change, as the largest emitter in the world.

It is crucial that emissions in China peak as early as possible, Myllyvirta says. “That would open the door to the country cutting emissions much faster than its current commitments require,” he says. “This would be of enormous significance to global efforts to prevent catastrophic climate change.”

China is rushing to boost electricity supplies across the country and meet rapidly increasing energy demand. This demand increased by 7.2 percent between July and September compared to a year earlier, driven by rising living standards and strong heat waves in August and September, which increased demand for cooling.

New renewable energy capacity has been rapidly deployed across China to help bridge the energy demand gap. Solar energy generation increased by a phenomenal 44 percent and wind energy by 24 percent between July and September, compared to the same period in 2023. Based on current developments, solar energy growth in China will be flat this year are to Australia’s total annual energy generation by 2023.

But electricity consumption by coal-fired power stations still increased by 2 percent and gas production by 13 percent from July to September, in response to rising demand. This led to an overall increase in CO2 emissions from China’s energy sector of 3 percent during this period. But these were offset by a slowdown in construction across China as real estate investment fell.

Oil demand also fell 2 percent in the third quarter of the year as electric vehicles make up an increasing share of China’s vehicle fleet. By 2030, almost 1 in 3 cars on the road in China is expected to be electric.

Myllyvirta conducted the analysis for the Carbon Brief website based on official figures and commercial data. “If the rapid growth of clean energy is maintained, it will pave the way for sustainable emissions reductions,” he says.

However, he warns that a plateau or decline in emissions in 2024 is not guaranteed, as government stimulus measures to restart the economy could push emissions higher in the last three months of 2024. Carbon emissions must fall by at least 2 percent over the past three months. three months of the year to fall below 2023 levels, he said.

Yet signals from the Chinese government indicate that it expects emissions in the country to continue rising through the end of the decade, an approach that would blow through the remaining global carbon budget by 1.5°C.